Fifteen years of foreign trade, i have developed a habit of watching international news three times a day in the morning, not to hunt wonders, but to wake up one day, with a new tariff schedule and two more sanctions lists. Right nowInternational situationIt's plainMulti-line games are running simultaneouslyNothing can be seen in isolation. The russians have not stopped, the middle east has taken a new turn, the trade cards between china and the united states have turned and washed, and the technology has gone further and further. These things get mixed up, and ordinary people feel so far away from themselves that the exchange rate, the price of oil, the price of the imported car that you bought, are taken away。
What are the international hotspots
And this year's worst is the middle east line. The war in gaza has been raging, the red sea shipping has been blundered and european logistics costs have risen. I flew to europe last month to meet clients, and i was complained that container prices were 30% more expensive than they were six months ago, which is not yet the part where war insurance premiums rose again. The geohazard risk is not a paper statement; it is directly present at every link of your supply chain and cannot be avoided。
Another line is technology. In the past few years, there has been a huge increase in the number of people living in the countryThe technology decoupling between central america and china has changed from slogan to realismI don't know. I had a friend who was a sophisticated instrument, who was able to use the core parts of the u. S. Last year, and had to wait four months for a security review this year, and finally had to change a whole line, and the equipment depreciated at half the profit. This friction is not the business of a company, and it upsets the pace of an industry, and it has to be recalculated by scheduling, delivering cycles。
How will the international situation change
I'm more worried about the word "normal." in the past, the conflict was considered to be of a phased nature and resumed once it had been completed, with the negotiating table sitting in two. But now the feeling isLow-intensity, long-cycle rivalry has become the backgroundI don't know. There won't be a day when the big deal will be done, but it will be a day in which all directions will continue to grind, to the point where all parties will be tired before finding a balance. For people who do business, that means you can't bet "that next year will be fine" anymore。
There is also an easy point to ignore: the position of small and medium-sized countries is swinging rapidly. No one wants to be caught in the middle, but geo-pressures force them to choose sides, and then the road back is narrow. You look at the "swaying" countries on the map, you sign an agreement here today, you make a joint show with them tomorrow, and this uncertainty is in itself the biggest cost and cannot be matched by financial instruments。
I still do the news every morning, but it's not like 10 years ago. It used to be fun. It's a deal. The four words of the international situation fall on the individualYour order can't be delivered on schedule, your child's country of study is not safe, and your investment in the fund's assets will be affected by the next round of sanctionsThese things. It was never a big story, it was a specific, inescapable piece。
