In 2024, the middle east again became the “storm eye” of the global situation, escalating tensions between israel, palestine, israel, israel and the red sea, the internal situation in syria, and the armed conflict in the sudan. The volatile middle east region has seriously affected global security and stability, adding to the hopes and aspirations of the peoples of the middle east for long-standing violations of peace. As a responsible power, china has always been committed to contributing its wisdom and strength to regional reconciliation, peace and harmony, guided by three global initiatives。
The escalation of conflict continues
The old waves are rising again
On 7 october 2023, a new wave of large-scale palestinian-israeli conflict erupted, the intensity of the conflict, the duration of its continuation, the breadth of its impact and the depth of its impact far beyond expectations. Since the outbreak of the conflict, israeli military operations in the gaza strip have killed more than 45,000 palestinians and injured more than 106,000 others. Even former israeli defence minister moses yaalun has indicated that the israeli leadership is taking israel on a path of occupation, annexation and “ethnic cleansing” of the gaza strip. The humanitarian plight of the gaza strip is striking, with enormous shocks and heavy casualties。
Continued air strikes have devastated khan younis in the gaza strip
On 22 october this year, more than a year after the outbreak of the conflict, the united nations development programme and the united nations economic and social commission for western asia (escwa) report on the anticipated socio-economic impact of the gaza war on the state of palestine states that the humanitarian situation in the gaza strip is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate, and that the human development index has reversed back to its level of 69 years ago, that more than 70 per cent of civilian infrastructure has been damaged by attacks, including homes, roads, hospitals, schools, water supply facilities, sewage treatment facilities, etc., and that the repair of those infrastructure will cost more than $18. 5 billion (approximately rmb 133,440 million), equivalent to 97 per cent of palestinian gross domestic product in 2022。
Despite the brief ceasefire and the exchange of some of the detainees between the two parties to the conflict at the end of november last year, the negotiating process has not been able to make substantial progress and no temporary or sustained ceasefire agreement has been reached since then. The egyptian and qatari sides are also making good offices efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement between the parties to the conflict。
The escalation of israel's conflict with multiple parties is even more worrying to the international community than the unresolved gaza conflict:
On 1 april, israeli air strikes on the consular office of the iranian embassy in syria killed 13 people, including 7 iranian military advisers
On 31 july, ismail haniya, hamas leader, was killed by israeli airstrike in his residence in tehran, the iranian capital
On 17 and 18 september, israel staged successive explosions of communications equipment, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, targeting cadres of hezbollah in lebanon, killing 37 people and wounding some 3,000
On 27 september, the secretary-general of hezbollah in lebanon, hassan nasrallah, was killed in an israeli air strike on the southern outskirts of the lebanese capital, beirut
On 5 october, the prime minister of israel, benjamin netanyahu, made a television statement stating that israel was fighting “on the seventh line” to fight hamas in the gaza strip, “terrorists” in the west bank, hezbollah in lebanon, the yemeni houthi armed forces, iraqi militia armed, syrian militia armed and iran。
On 16 october, the new hamas leader, yahya shinwar, was killed in the israeli military operations against the southern gaza strip。
Israeli air strike on the consular office of the iranian embassy in syria on 1 april
It is clear that israel launched a series of “headings” aimed at dragging iran, a supporter behind non-state actors such as hamas and hezbollah, into the mud. Over the past few decades, israel has fought with iran in the middle east through a pattern of proxy warfare, and with the spiral of conflict, two large-scale direct attacks have taken place in the past year:
On 13 april, iran launched dozens of missile and drone attacks against israeli targets in response to numerous israeli “crimes”, including the attack on the consular office of the iranian embassy in syria on 1 april
On 1 october, iran fired some 200 missiles at israel in response to the killings of hamas leader haniyah and lebanese hezbollah leader nasrallah。
On 4 october, the iranian people gathered to hear the speech of supreme leader khamenei about iran's missile attacks against israel
In addition to palestine and israel, lebanon and iraq, the crisis in the red sea and the civil war in the sudan have also been destabilizing factors in the region and the international situation. The former has led to increased shipping costs, shocks to global supply chains, renewed inflation and overshadowed prospects for global economic recovery, while the latter's belligerents, the sudanese armed forces and the sudan rapid support force, have so far shown no sign of ceasefire and may have sharply deteriorated into the largest global hunger crisis。
External power in the middle east
The great powers rise again
On 26 october, the office of the prime minister of israel issued a statement stating that the israeli security cabinet had approved the israeli-lebanese hizbollah ceasefire the same night by a vote of 10 to 1, which had entered into force at 4 a. M. Local time on 27 october. On 11 december, the israel defense forces withdrew from shiyam, a major town in southern lebanon, the first forces to be withdrawn from lebanon since the signing of the ceasefire agreement between israel and hizbullah in lebanon, and gave the parties a glimpse of peace。
Israeli withdrawal from southern lebanon following the ceasefire with hizbullah on 13 december
There was a wave of violence and a sudden change in neighbouring syria. On 27 november, clashes between the syrian opposition and government forces broke out in various parts of syria, and in just a dozen days, the opposition proceeded to attack strategic sites such as aleppo, hama and homs, eventually occupying the capital, damascus, on 8 december, and syrian president bashar al-assad flew to russia. On 9 december, the opposition authorized mohamed al-bashir of the government of the syrian salvation to form a transitional syrian government, tentatively until 1 march 2025。
Address by syrian opposition leader djulani in damascus on 8 december
The analysis concluded that the sudden change in the internal situation in syria, which had broken the previous pattern of power in syria of the united states, russia, turkey, iran and other major international and regional powers, and the destruction of more than 80 per cent of syria's defence forces by israel's “bust”, added additional uncertainty to the already fragile security situation in syria。
At present, the transitional government of syria has released a signal of willingness to engage with the international community and to communicate on an equal footing, but it is difficult to truly improve the situation in the country. The strategic significance of syria, as the heart of the middle east, is self-evident, and the strength and game of external forces in syria will not cease, while economic fragility, livelihood, high prices and energy shortages are both pressing challenges for the syrian transitional government and key factors influencing the achievement of peace and stability in the middle east。
Dialogue and consultation to resolve differences
It's a call from the ages of the ages
Faced with the deteriorationThe situation in the middle eastIn the face of the bleak prospects for peace, china, as a responsible power, has always believed that the future of the middle east should be in the hands of the countries of the middle east. It has always supported the people of the middle east to explore their own path of development, to resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation and to work together to promote lasting peace and security in the region:
On 1 january, saudis, egypt, the united arab emirates and iran became full members of the brics
On 30 may, at the tenth ministerial meeting of the china-arab cooperation forum, held in beijing, the heads of state of bahrain, egypt, tunisia and the united arab emirates undertook a collective visit to china, where they issued a joint statement on palestine, in which they made a strong call for peace and justice on the question of palestine
30 may opening of the tenth ministerial meeting of the china-arab cooperation forum
From 21 to 23 july, high-level representatives of 14 palestinian factions held a reconciliation dialogue in beijing, where they jointly signed the beijing declaration on ending divisions and strengthening palestinian national unity。
The signing of the beijing declaration by palestinian factions in beijing on 23 july to end division
Whether it is to support the just cause of the palestinian people for the restoration of their legitimate national rights or to fight for peace in the gaza strip, whether it is to provide humanitarian assistance to the conflict zone within its capabilities or to do its part in carrying out peacekeeping missions in the region, it is to be seen that the mission and responsibility of the responsible powers are reflected. As stated by the minister for foreign affairs of wang qi, a member of the central political bureau of the chinese communist party, during his collective meeting with arab ambassadors in china on 19 december in beijing, the middle east is the middle east, whose people cannot continue to fall victim to the battles of the great powers and to geo-conflicts. The international community should respect the legitimate concerns, autonomous choices and historical and cultural traditions of the countries of the region, and support their harmonious coexistence and long-term security。
