Author: yang zhen (professor and ph. D. Mentor, department of economics, central party of the communist party of china (national school of administration), zhang zhang zhen (ph. D., ministry of economics, central party of china (national school of administration))
The view was expressed that, according to the latest income standards published by the world bank, my country would cross the high-income country threshold by 2027, leading to the conclusion that “china will become a developed country” and “china will no longer be a developing country”. Such views appear to be based on international authoritative criteria, which in fact confuse the two different dimensions of “high-income economies” and “developed economies”. Even if china enters the ranks of high-income economies in the future, it will not change its position that “china is the largest developing country in the world”. Clarifying the possible confusion and divergence of concepts would not only help us to view china's development realities rationally and objectively, but would also help china to reasonably assume responsibility for the international responsibilities of the major powers。
“high income” and “developed”: concepts of two different dimensions
High-income economies (high-income economies) and developed economies (developed economies) are two interrelated concepts, but they are not the same. The public can easily equate the two because many developed countries are also high-income countries, such as the united states, germany and japan. However, in terms of the definition of an international organization, the basis for their determination, the purpose for their use and international binding are not identical。
(i) high-income economies are a service-specific classification system
Each year, the world bank classifies the global economy into four categories: low-income, middle- and high-income, medium-income and high-income, based on gross national income (gni per capita) per capita. The calculation of the per capita gni used takes into account the three-year average exchange rate, as well as the cumulative inflation factor, to minimize the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and to enable long-term comparisons between countries. It should be noted that this classification system has only one core indicator — the level of gni per capita. In other words, as long as the income threshold announced by the world bank is met, it can be considered a high-income economy, regardless of industrial structure, level of technology, institution-building, welfare of the population or quality of development. More importantly, this statistical classification system is the world bank's classification of loans used to provide differential credit policies to different countries and a classification system that serves the specific purpose of “who can benefit from preferential interest rates on loans”. While this type of evaluation is one-size-fits-all, it facilitates the world bank's work on lending assistance, etc., but it is by no means a scientific assessment of a country's combined wealth and modernity, let alone a yardstick for defining a country's development。
(ii) developed economies are a classification system reflecting an integrated level of development
To date, there is no single “developed country” standard at the international level. While international institutions such as the united nations conference on trade and development (unctad), the international monetary fund (imf) and the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) all have their own classification criteria and methods, the factors taken into account are not limited to income levels, but also generally include multiple evaluation criteria such as industrial structure and innovation capacity, labour productivity, educational and health care levels, social security systems, maturity of market systems, science, technology and innovation capabilities, and human development levels. In other words, developed economies emphasize the overall level of modern development of a country. In international transactions such as international trade and economic rules, this classification usually requires that states assume international responsibility and fulfil international obligations as developed economies。
Taken together, high-income and developed economies are two different dimensions. According to the world bank criteria, an economy can be considered a high-income economy, but not necessarily a developed country in terms of its overall level of development. At the moment, only 30 of the more than 80 high-income countries globally are recognized as developed countries. They are neither equal nor conflicting, let alone substitutes or simple drawings. On the basis of this determination, high-income economies are based on a single indicator of income, and developed economies are based on an indicator system; for the purposes of use, high-income economies are a service-world bank loan the purpose of preferential application is that developed economies measure the overall level of development of an economy in an integrated manner; from an international perspective, those identified as high-income economies are simply unable to benefit from world bank concessional lending rates, but are identified as developed economies with more corresponding responsibilities and obligations。
Ii. Crossing high income tests: international experience and china realization
Crossing the world bank's high income threshold is an important landmark in our economic and social development and deserves full recognition. But that change does not mean that we have become a developed country, nor does it change our basic position as the largest developing country in the world。
(i) international experience with “high-income developed”
According to the national statistical office, china's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 was $13953. World bank data, however, show that gross national income (gni) per capita in our continent reached $14430 in 2025, close to the world bank-published threshold for high-income economies (gni per capita exceeded $14375). While there is uncertainty as to when the threshold will be crossed, there is no doubt that china will cross the high income threshold. It still needs to be stressed that joining the ranks of high-income economies does not mean that our country will become a developed country。
Indeed, many high-income economies are not developed countries. In many countries, the development process has undergone a shift from high-income economies to developed countries. In recent years, countries such as chile, uruguay, panama and costa rica have crossed the world bank's high-income country threshold, but the international community still generally views them as developing countries or emerging economies and does not automatically recognize them as developed countries because income meets high income standards。
From high-income economies to developed countries, there is still a long way to go. Although south korea had emerged as a group of high-income economies as early as the 1990s, it had only been recognized as a developed country in 2021 after a long process of industrial upgrading, technological innovation and social modernization, the first case in which the united nations conference on trade and development had graduated from a developing country to a developed country since its establishment in 1964. International experience has shown that growing from high-income to developed countries will be a long historical process。
(ii) the chinese reality of “high-income developed”
According to the latest list published by the imf in 2026, china is not included in the 43 developed economies (including countries and regions) that are relatively well recognized globally, and this is consistent with china’s current development realities。
In terms of income levels and structure in china, because the high income standard looks only at “per capita”, this means that it is extremely easy to conceal structural differences within the data. A large country with 1. 4 billion people, even though per capita numbers have crossed the threshold, the urban-rural gap within it, the east-west gap, and so on, remain large, and the development imbalance remains acute. At present, global per capita GDP in developed economies is generally over $30,000, and the threshold in middle-developed economies is generally around $20,000. Even if our future per capita gni goes beyond the entry line for high-income countries, there is still a significant gap in the median income of developed economies。
In terms of china's overall level of economic development, there is also a significant gap between our country and the developed economies. Among the criteria defined by the imf for the advanced economies, five dimensions are examined: the degree of structural diversification of the economy, the autonomy of science, technology and innovation, the level of human development (hdi), the level of parity between social security and public services, and the level of institutional governance. In general, the weaknesses in basic scientific research in our country, the persistence of the phenomenon of “calculation” in key core areas and the need to scale up public services, which are by no means automatically complemented by single-income indicators, still need to be addressed through sustained high-quality development and increased modernization。
Iii. Adherence to developing country positioning: in line with our national circumstances and international rules
Rather than underestimating china's own achievements, maintaining the position of developing countries is the most objective and scientific judgement in our development phase。
(i) the international status of my country as the largest developing country in the world remains unchanged
The 19th of the party has clearly made a major judgement: it must be recognized that the changes in the main contradictions in our society have not changed our judgment at the historical stage of our socialism, that the basic state of our country remains unchanged and will remain in the early stages of socialism for a long time, and that our international status as the world's largest developing country has not changed. Whether the future crosses the world bank's high-income statistical threshold, this judgement is firmly based on objective economic data, short-term realities and broad international consensus, and does not waver with changes in single indicators. Conflating “high-income countries” with “developed countries” and further declaring that we should abandon the position of developing countries and assume exactly the same international responsibilities as developed countries, is not in keeping with international rules or with our development reality。
(ii) universal recognition of our developing country status
The international community's determination of developing countries was itself multidimensional. As the largest developing country in the world, my country has long been the objective understanding of the international community and is based on realistic judgements about our stage of development, population size, per capita level of development and development tasks. Therefore, even if we enter high-income economies in the future, we will not automatically change our developing-country identity. The persistence of the position of the developing countries is consistent not only with the general awareness of the international community, but also with the true state of our country at this stage. Instead of pursuing the false name of “advanced standards” in statistics, we are committed to addressing the substantive issue of inadequate development imbalances。
(iii) developing countries position both china and china
China not only bases itself on the position of developing countries, but also on the position of developing countries in international affairs, demonstrating the responsibility of the great powers and international responsibility. Instead of taking advantage of the status of a developing country as a hitchhiker, china has shown itself to be a major player in international economic and trade affairs, taking the initiative to participate in and lead the formulation of international economic and trade rules, and is committed to providing global public goods to the international community. In recent years, china has launched a “one-way road” initiative to promote connectivity and achieve mutually beneficial gains through infrastructure development, opening up unilaterally to the least developed countries globally. China is transforming its own growth dividend into a driving force for inclusive global development, providing chinese wisdom and chinese programmes for the development and modernization of other developing countries around the globe。
In the future, whether or not we cross the high-income threshold, we must build on the primary task of high-quality development in the new quest to fully build a modern socialist state, and move forward with china's modernization on the basis of developing country positioning and fundamental national conditions. We need to build confidence in development as well as remain strategic。
