On 9 july, the national statistical office published its june price data。
In june, the national consumer price (cpi) increased by 1. 0 per cent over the same period, by 0. 3 per cent over the ring, and by 1. 0 per cent over the same period of the previous year, on average, in january-june。
In june, the prices of industrial producers throughout the country (ppi) rose 4. 1 per cent over the same period and the ring fell by 0. 3 per cent. The acquisition price for industrial producers increased by 6. 4 per cent and the ring ratio decreased by 0. 2 per cent over the same period. In the first half of the year, the prices of industrial producers out of the factory increased by 1. 5 per cent over the same period of the previous year, and the prices of industrial producers buying into the factory increased by 2. 4 per cent。
The impact of seasonal factors and price volatility on international markets, with a narrow increase in the cpi in june
In june, the decrease in the cpi ring (0. 3 per cent) was further widened over the previous value and narrowed down over the same period (1. 0 per cent). In addition to seasonal factors, such effects as international gold prices and international oil prices are important factors。
The chief statistician of the urban division of the national statistical office, li xian, noted that international input factors, among others, had led to a fall in domestic prices for industrial consumer goods. According to the national statistics office, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 2. 9 per cent in june, down 1. 0 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the cpi by about 0. 90 percentage points over the same period, and the upward impact on the cpi by about 0. 28 percentage points over the previous month. In industrial consumer goods, the price increases for gold and gasoline fell to 28. 1 per cent and 17. 0 per cent, respectively, affecting a cumulative increase of about 0. 60 percentage points for the cpi and a decrease of about 0. 23 percentage points for the cpi over the previous month。
In terms of ring comparison, domestic prices for gold and gasoline fell by 8. 7 per cent and 4. 9 per cent, respectively, in june, an increase of 5. 9 and 4. 6 percentage points, respectively, as compared to the previous month, affecting a combined reduction of about 0. 22 percentage points in the cpi ring and an increase of about 0. 19 percentage points in the downward impact on the cpi。
With regard to food prices, the decline was 0. 4 per cent, the same as last month, affecting the cpi ratio by approximately 0. 07 percentage points. Among them, the market was well supplied and the prices of fresh vegetables and fresh fruit were reduced by 1. 0 per cent and 2. 0 per cent, respectively, affecting about 0. 06 percentage points of the cpi ring; the price of pork and water products by 0. 8 per cent and 0. 6 per cent, respectively, affecting about 0. 02 percentage points of the cpi ring; and the egg stock column was low, with a drop in the rate of superheating eggs, an increase in the price of eggs by 7. 0 per cent and an increase of about 0. 03 percentage points of the cpi ring。
However, as a result of the lower base figure for the same period of the previous year, food prices in june were slightly narrower, at 1. 6 per cent, and decreased by 0. 1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting about 0. 28 percentage points from the cpi to the same period (about 0. 30 percentage points from the previous month)。
In june, the price ratio of pork fell by 0. 8 per cent (precedent - 1. 6 per cent). At the end of the supply, according to galaxy macros, the concentration of weight loss at the front end of farming, the acceleration of the column, the increase in the price differentials in late june, the increase in the mood of the farmer's pressure column, and the decrease in the number of raw pigs coming out of the column at a stage have supported the price of pigs. The demand side is still on a seasonal low-season basis, high-temperature weather inhibits fresh end-sale consumption, and the slaughter end has a limited incentive to start work and freezers, and movement remains weak at prices。
According to von lin, the executive director of the eastern ministry of research and development, the import inflation effect of the geopolitical conflict in the middle east dropped significantly in june, when the core cpi stood at 1. 0 per cent, an increase of 0. 1 percentage points smaller than last month, and continued to be at a low level, largely behind which the current consumer markets continue to exhibit clear patterns of supply and demand。
The fall in international oil prices slowed down in the ppi ring in june, but the impact of the base factor increased from year to year
The decline of 0. 3 per cent in the ppi ring ratio in june was the first to fall since the decline of the ppi ring in august last year, but the increase in the ppi ratio in june was 0. 2 percentage points to 4. 1 per cent from the previous month, under the influence of the low base figure for the same period last year。
“the decline in the ppi ring in june was mainly due to the easing of geopolitical risks in the middle east, which led to a significant fall in international oil prices, followed by a downward adjustment in domestic prices for finished products.” according to von lin, this means that the impact of oil price volatility on domestic ppis has been drastically reversed。
Domestic related sector prices have fallen as a result of lower international crude oil prices. According to the national statistical office, prices for oil extraction fell by 16. 0 per cent in june, prices for the manufacture of refined petroleum products decreased by 3. 1 per cent, by 14. 2 and 2. 8 percentage points respectively over the previous month, and prices for the manufacture of chemical raw materials and chemicals and for the manufacture of chemical fibres decreased by 2. 0 and 0. 8 per cent, respectively, from the previous month's increase。
In addition, according to thong li zhuang, some of the industry's price movements are influenced by seasonal factors, with higher temperatures in june, increased demand for “ceiling summer” coal preparation and refrigeration products, an increase of 5. 6 per cent in the price of the coal mining and washing industry ring, an increase of 0. 6 per cent in the price of domestic refrigeration appliances and 0. 4 per cent in the price of refrigeration air-conditioning equipment; and a decline of 9. 1 per cent, 2. 5 per cent and 2. 2 per cent, respectively, in the price of hydropower, solar power and wind power in the summer. In addition, industrial upgrading has accelerated demand in some sectors, leading to higher prices, such as an 8. 4 per cent increase in the price ring for the manufacture of virtual realistic equipment, a 3. 4 per cent increase in the price of the manufacture of worn smart equipment and a 3. 3 per cent increase in the price of industrial controlled computers and systems。
According to china's securities, the ppi movement was somewhat polarized in june, with input factors having a distorting effect on the ppi's trend of year-to-year growth, with price cycles for energy, chemical products moving downwards or downwards, and prices for products driven by the development of artificial intelligence industries rising upwards。
The cpi is expected to remain largely stable in the second half of the year
Looking ahead to the next stage, the chinese-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-sino-。
According to the chief economist of the bank, the cpi is expected to remain generally stable in the second half of the year, with the cumulative year-round increase remaining around 1. 0 per cent. Among them, food prices focused on pork prices, which remained low during the first half of the year and had not reversed the downward trend in several harvests. With the significant decline in the availability of sows only in october last year, corresponding to a corresponding reduction in the number of pigs born in the middle of this year, combined with the peaks of three successive demands for promotions in the second half of the year, for two festivals in mid-autumn, and for pickles in winter, the price of pork is expected to pick up gradually, with food prices shifting from drag to support。
On the ppi side, there is a perception that the same-year increases or milestones are highest. In july, according to the galaxy macros, there is a high probability that ppi will be a phase higher than the ppi equivalent reading. On the one hand, the current crude oil prices are close to pre-conflict levels and, while still disturbed by the situation in the united states and iran, without substantial interruptions in crude oil supply and transport routes, the geo-risk premium will support or be more manifested in short-term pulses, and the push of the petrochemical industrial chain to the ppi will be marginal or even slow. On the other hand, the ppi-cpi scissors gap is still widening, reflecting the poor flow of upstream price increases to downstream terminals, the greater concentration of current-cycle prices on the cost end and part of the gas industry, the still insufficient capacity for terminal demand delivery, the limited capacity of enterprises to transfer costs to the consumer end of the population, and the constraints on the mobility of industrial prices。
