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Gold has recently continued to dominate major platforms. Walking into a gold store below the line reveals that the price of gold jewellery is volatile, and that many ordinary people are very obscurantized: is it now appropriate to take gold? Can the gold bar be saved
Some have chosen to buy gold in batches in anticipation of future value additions, while many citizens have started at relatively high levels and are anxious to return to prices. A large number of civilians look at the gold and stare at only a few short days of boom and fall, which can easily be judged by short-term shocks。
The multiple bottom factors that affect gold prices are changing over a long period of time, with a number of industry institutions continuously analysing and possibly adjusting their gold market patterns in the next two years. Precipitating that the gold market does not have a steady chance of earning money, and that all market analyses are for information only and cannot be used as a basis for investment。
I. Core logic underpinning the long-term value of gold continues to exist
Since time immemorial, gold has been recognized by the general public as hard currency, the central reason being that it is independent of the country's credit currencies and has asset avoidance attributes。
As public data can be seen, in recent years there has been a steady increase in gold reserves in many central banks around the world, as well as a steady increase in our reserves. A number of countries have increased gold reserves with the main aim of optimizing the structure of foreign exchange assets and reducing the risks associated with single currency fluctuations. Long-term demand for in-kind purchases, which has underpinned the construction of gold prices, makes it difficult to sustain a substantial decline。
Federal reserve monetary policy has long been a central factor influencing international gold prices. Gold is an interest-free asset, and the attractiveness of deposits and bonds increases when market interest rates continue to rise; once interest rates enter the lower cycle, the assigned value of gold is valued more financially. The market continues to watch the pace of adjustment of foreign monetary policy and policy changes are expected to continue to influence the direction of gold prices。
In addition to this, global inflation levels, geo-uncertainty, and the debt situation of countries all give rise to a phased need for risk avoidance. Whenever the external environment is unstable, finance tends to choose gold to avoid risk, which is also an important reason why gold prices are often high. The combination of multiple long-line factors has created a large upward trend in the overall shock of gold in recent years。
An aunt is a typical case. During the previous two years of a boom in gold prices, she had bought many bracelets of gold, which she felt could be worn on a daily basis while preserving value added. There was a reversal in the subsequent value of the money, and it was not until a significant loss was realized. A lot of people here are confused with one thing: buying gold jewellery is a consumer act, and investing in gold bars is biased towards asset allocation. Jewellery consists of brand premiums, processing costs, and even when the price of raw material gold increases, it is difficult to earn a profit when cash is recovered, which is the most easy pit for ordinary people。
Ii. Multiple risks cannot be ignored, and gold prices are difficult to escape from unilateral practices love
It is too one-sided to say that many short videos on the internet suggest that gold only rises. Even with long-term supporting conditions, short-term market adjustments are likely to occur at any time, as are a number of disincentives for gold prices in the coming years。
First, economic development abroad has variables. If economic growth is resilient beyond expectations and inflation rebounds again, the overseas central banks may slow down the rate of interest-rate reduction, and when the dollar is stronger, the price of gold will be under pressure. There is now a clear divergence of views among the major institutions, some of which have a long-term view of gold and some of which have a long-term shock in the price of pre-judgement by analysts, making it difficult to generate a sustained surge。
Second, short-term speculative capital flows are high and gold price fluctuations are magnified. Whenever gold prices continued to rise and large amounts of short-term funds were in the open, the good news came to light and the money was concentrated and the prices were quickly reversed. It is difficult for the general public to grasp the nodes of sale with precision, and blind pursuit can be easily caught up in the short term。
Third, consumption of gold in kind is cyclical. China and india are the world's leading markets for the consumption of gold in kind, and marriage, traditional festivals, and demand are being mobilized at the stage; if the willingness of the population to consume is reduced, it will also weaken the incentive for gold prices to rise。
In simple terms: long-term support, volatility is normal. What you are saying is “changed”, not only by rising prices, but also by the possibility of entering into prolonged shock adjustment。
Iii. The general view of gold is to avoid these common faults
It is important to look at the cognitive pitfalls of having to return to the way ordinary people perceive gold rationally。
Zone one: lending, leveraging for gold investment. As the price of gold rose, some sought to scale up the gains with funds. Once the price of the gold is reversed in a short period of time, it not only faces book losses, but also incurs interest on the loan, which is extremely risky, and financial institutions have repeatedly warned of such behaviour。
Mistake ii: treat gold jewellery as property. The brand gold premium is high, and the recycler settles only on the basis of the price of the gold raw materials and is unable to recover the high cost of work. If gold assets were to be configured, priority could be given to knowing standard investment notes and not to hoard large amounts of jewellery。
Zero three: we're back on the phone. The web is full of words such as “squeezing the bottom” and “the price of gold is going to swell”, and each person's income, risk tolerance and other people's programmes cannot be replicated directly. Household asset allocation is fragmented and it is important not to put all of its savings into gold。
For ordinary households, gold is more appropriate as a “buffer” in a portfolio of assets, which is used to hedge uncertainty and is not a speculative product for quick profit. Inactive funds are sufficient and can be appropriately allocated in small percentages; if daily revenue and expenditure pressures are high, there is no need to hoard gold with the wind。
Iv. Summary of reflections
A combination of open market information shows that long-line multiple factors continue to support the value of gold, but that the various potential space-derived variables cannot be ignored. With the gradual adjustment of global monetary policy, the pattern of the gold market is likely to change in the next two years. Last price breakthroughs or long-term shocks require sustained observation of key signals such as overseas interest rate policies, the global central bank's gold acquisition rhythm, and the external environment。
It is not necessary for ordinary people to spend a lot of time insisting on the price of pre-judgement. If there is a need to wear it, the right time can be chosen for gold jewellery; it is essential that the assets be configured in a way that is affordable. No money should be spent overnight, and it was more important to be rational and affordable。
Does everybody think the gold shock will increase or continue to rise? Do you have gold jewelry or gold bars? An exchange of views in the comment area would be welcome。
Declaration of exemption:
This paper is an objective analytical exchange of market information and does not constitute any investment proposal. Price volatility of gold is high, and all transactions are subject to self-responsibility and rational participation。
