The latest published data of the ministry of agriculture and rural development show that the national pork market price in the second week of august was $20. 89 per kilogram, an increase of 0. 3 per cent over the previous week's round, which means that after a steady price of 20 cents per kilogram, the impact will start at 21 yuan per kilogram. But is the increase in the price of pork due to consumption increase? Is the subsequent increase sustainable? Let's look at a set of data。
Monitoring by the state-level grand data centre on pigs shows that on august 17, beijing's wholesale trade in white pigs was 50. 47 million kilograms, a decrease of 2. 19 per cent from yesterday's, and we traced back to the previous week (10 august), beijing's wholesale trade in white pigs was 51. 16 million kilograms, compared with beijing's wholesale trade about a month ago (20 july). In comparison, three sets of data clearly show that there has been a slow fall in white pig sales in the beijing market in recent years, with a small drop in the overall volume of transactions。
What does that mean? At least to indicate that the price of pork is starting to rebound, but the reason for the rebound is not an increase in pork consumption, but rather the conductive effect of the continuous recovery of live upstream pigs. This also indicates a rebound in the current round's price of pigs, due more to the structural tightening of the supply side, a reduction in the stock of large-weight fat pigs, a rise in the purchase price for farmers, and a rise in the price of meat prices by slaughtering enterprises, which are on a positive and reduced basis。
As this logic evolves, there is greater uncertainty about continuity as a result of the upturn in the current round triggered by the mood of sale. Farmer pressure bars and secondary fertility rates are, in essence, merely delayed and fall back on current production capacity, without reducing the overall supply of pig production in the market at its root. When the prices of later pigs reach psychological expectations, large numbers of late-posted raw pigs pour into the market, which can easily result in short-term release of supplies, followed by shocks to the current upward trend。
In the short term, it is likely that the high rate of oscillation will continue for some time with the low stock of pigs, as well as the growing mood of farmers. But to go even further, to break the current price ceiling, ultimately waiting for consumption-side relays, relying on the opening season, mid-autumn national day, to generate real increases in pork demand. Clocking up the central reserve of frozen pork on the ground will, in due course, counter the risk of rapid increases in impulsiveness and the volatility of markets。
In summary, the current phase of the situation is a phase of repair rebound, not a cyclical arrival. Farmers are advised to look rationally at this increase, not to be blindly betting on post-market highs, and to come out in a row in the light of their cash flow, avoiding the risk of fall from later concentration。
