China has never so desperately needed plan b
As we get closer and closer to the leader, we get more and more constrained。
This includes the foreign trade of one of the troikas。
At present, the decline in chinese exports has lasted five months. In the face of the current state of affairs, china's foreign trade has yet another huge risk, namely, carbon tariffs。
Just in the past 11 gold weeks, the eu carbon border regulation mechanism (cbam) has entered the transition period and will be officially implemented in 2026. The first products cover raw material products such as steel, aluminium, fertilizers and hydrogen, and the eu requires importers of these products to collect data on carbon emissions and report their emissions to eu authorities in order to continue exporting to europe。
The eu's new battery act also provides for carbon tracking throughout the life cycle of a product, from the cradle, i. E., the mining end, to production, application, recycling and back to battery manufacturing。
At a time when chinese manufacturing has just emerged globally, challenges have also been faced。
And drink a peck, and it will not be determined。
The introduction of carbon barriers in europe, which would appear to be at a moral high ground, addressed the issue of europe's under-competitive products。
Importing carbon tariffs on certain products of countries that have failed to respond to climate change by setting high ethical standards directly strangling the throats of industrial chains。
Many of these products are focused on chinese exports and are concentrated in traditional chinese niche industries such as steel and aluminium. A developing country such as china could access the european market only by purchasing the corresponding carbon content trade permits。
The institute of zhegen industries has studies which, based on the eu carbon market price in 2023 (euro100/t), add-ons of iron and steel and electrolytic aluminium can cost more than 20 per cent of the value of the goods, or about euro1. 7 billion (based on the size of exports in 2021)。
Carbon barriers in developed countries such as europe and the united states are not just carbon tariffs, but include new battery bills, and other carbon barriers, such as pv import footprint requirements. After this combination of punches, it is initially estimated that china’s exports will face at least 2 trillion yuan in direct carbon tariff barriers or hidden carbon costs。
According to a world bank study, if the “carbon tariffs” were fully implemented, chinese manufacturing could face an average of 26 per cent of tariffs on the international market, which could result in a 21 per cent drop in exports。
Since then, china's pricing and capacity advantages have been offset by intangibles。
Without a two-carbon transition soon, developing countries represented by china would be greatly constrained by international carbon pricing in terms of international trade, investment abroad, project construction and financing。
In terms of new energy policies, europe, which has always been known for its radicalization, has from the outset been headed towards the new energy rule maker。
The green transition in europe began earlier in its own condition. As early as the 1980s, the transformation of traditional industrial zones, such as loraine, germany and others, began。
Russia's abundant natural gas as an alternative to clean energy has given rise to fear of a european energy transition, combined multinational electricity regulation through grid interconnection, and a route to increase fossil energy use costs in energy transformation。
However, the unequal distribution of wind resources and industries in europe has been highlighted when the supply of natural gas has been hampered。
For china, there is a clear gap between europe and the green transition because of the different stages of development。
Is there any way to crack the carbon barrier
You know, carbon barriers are themselves a rule of the game. Its essence is to set a higher threshold for foreign products and to convert invisible carbon emissions into visible carbon tariffs。
In reading cbam, we see that direct green electricity supply is the only way to break the carbon barrier。
At the ordos zero carbon industry congress, held on 26 october, the senior partner of china's carbon and 50-member congress, heihua yongtai (beijing), u baixian, stated that green electricity was not living and equal, and that the eu was moving from financial to physical use of green electricity in search of time and space. That is, the new energy curve for electricity needs to match the new energy curve for electricity generation。
“our grid is a big grid, so i think zero carbon estate is the special zone of electricity. I'm sorry。
Proceeding from the first principle, the negative impact of cbam on exports can be mitigated if we reduce the scope again to exports and if they can be produced in a green electric direct supply。
The vision technology group ceo zhang lei delivered a keynote address entitled " zero carbon industrial park: green engines made in china " at the above-mentioned ordos zero carbon industry conference。
According to zhang lei, carbon neutrality and transformation are reshaping global trade patterns, and zero carbon estates will give industrial products a competitive advantage over carbon costs as a green engine made in china。
Zero carbon parks are the key to breaking down。
Beginning in 2021, the vision technology group creatively built china's first zero carbon industrial park in ordos, using the vast area of the gobi plateau。
China is a vast country, with different natural climates, levels of economic development and energy consumption supply structures in the north-west and south. To put it simply, china's supply and demand for green energy are unbalanced。
The north-west is a wind- and solar-energy-rich region with few needs, while the economically well-developed regions of the east, which are traditionally the focus of chinese industry, have greater demand for green energy。
This imbalance in supply and demand, combined with the absence of low-cost transitional energy sources such as natural gas as a back-up to the transition, and the cumulative depletion of large-scale, long-distance high-voltage transmissions, have made it necessary for china to consider the industrial side of the new energy transition。
Reducing the cost of using green renewable energy will break the carbon barriers in areas where new energy resources are abundant, with energy-intensive, export-oriented and future-oriented new industries, using zero-carbon industrial parks as carriers。
In the green-energy-rich north-west, the extension of the zero carbon industrial park model is a realistic picture of the future of china’s green industrial revolution。
Having said that, it is not easy to achieve a low-cost, stable and direct supply of green electricity。
For enterprises, costs have always been a key element in production。
If the industry is to ignore the advantages of transport, markets and raw materials in the east and settle in the central and western regions, the question of whether to guarantee a 100 per cent green energy supply at a sufficiently low price is a first consideration。
Looking forward to the first global zero carbon estate in ordos, mongolia, an innovative system of zero carbon parks has been explored, including renewable energy systems, zero carbon digital operating systems and green new industrial clusters。
At present, ordos has been able to achieve 100 per cent green zero-carbon energy supply through the internet-connected supply control system and an energy island based on wind power, voltage, energy storage and green hydrogen, with 80 per cent of the park's energy being supplied locally by wind power, photovoltaics and another 20 per cent trading with the grid. The prices of electricity in the enterprises entering the park are even lower than the standard rates for business in the autonomous regions。
Green direct supply represents a major breakthrough for zero carbon estates and a realistic path to avoid carbon tariffs。
At the same time, the vision is based on a network of zero carbon industrial park smarts to measure the carbon footprint of products throughout their life cycle and complete the carbon neutralization process, leading to the formation of a traceable “zero carbon green code” for products that meet various international standards and are certified by authoritative bodies。
Over the past three years, the zero carbon industrial park has been built with the vision of building on its own leading technological advantages and strong industry-led capabilities, initially creating a new energy cell, equipment and automobile manufacturing chain led by enterprises such as the vision, lungi, the concubine group and the upper gas red rock, and pioneering the use of green power to produce zero carbon products in the zero carbon industrial park。
The creation of a new carbon-free industrial system requires not only the courage to eat crabs first, but also an international set of standards. With standards in place, the zero carbon park model is likely to be replicated and replicated in china and the world, and standards and evaluation mechanisms are expected to be brought into line with foreign laws and regulations, and zero carbon parks can break down carbon barriers。
At the beginning of the design of the zero carbon estate, the vision brought together the leading international certification body, the french group, and the chinese institute for standardization, which together issued the first international standard for zero carbon parks, in line with international standards and consistent with the requirements of the sbti scientific carbon target。
At the domestic level, in order to facilitate the construction of zero-carbon industrial parks, vision and the autonomous region of inner mongolia have worked together to develop local standards such as the green power application evaluation methodology, the zero-carbon industrial park construction code and the zero-carbon industrial park measurement standard。
At the ordos zero carbon industry conference on 26 october, vision worked together with the resource environment research branch of the china institute for standardization, the european union standardization expert project in china, deloitte china, tÜvnand, the dnv norwegian classification association and other national and international authorities and enterprises to launch the zero carbon international standard-building and green trade ordos initiative, which aims to jointly create international and domestic carbon-free standards, promote international certification of mutual trust and international green trade, enhance the green competitiveness of products, and facilitate the integration of ordos into global green trade。
The rewriting of such a rule could be an unprecedented opportunity for mongolia to become a high ground for exports of green industrial products from china。
The ordos, located in the highlands, are not only the traditional energy “surveillance” city, but also a type of wind resource zone and type ii solar resource-rich zone, with an average of 3,000 solar-hours throughout the year, with excellent development conditions。
This resource-based city, proud of its “sheep gas”, is being transformed into an emerging city that can make sustainable use of renewable resources with a strong determination。
A series of green industrial ecological clusters are being established。
It is now located in nine new energy headhouses, mainly in the vision power battery industry, which initially led to the formation of the vision technology group, supported by a battery and storage chain。
Zhang lei stated that 80 per cent of the battery products produced today at the vision ordos zero carbon estate were exported to europe, the united states and singapore, and that the battery products had been carbon neutralized and certified. At a time when future carbon-tariff barriers to batteries are in place and the competition for batteries is increasing, the products of ordos, the products of inner mongolia, will gain unprecedented competitiveness。
According to official projections, by the end of the 14th century, the new energy unit in ordos will exceed 50 million kilowatts and the total output of the wind-hide truck industry will be over 500 billion yuan, making it the world's largest photovoltaic industry, the largest storage industry, the largest hydrogen industry and the largest new energy hub。
By that time, the total output of the wind-holder truck industry would be over $500 billion, which is comparable to the total GDP of ordos today。
Every energy conversion creates new forms of industry and industry. Ordos took the lead in seizing the opportunity, which would be a new height for green industry and a new hub for international trade。
And the green transformation of chinese industry, and the answer to china's entirely new development opportunities in international trade, is in the winds of the inner mongolia。
