In the 1990s, the international landscape changed. Russia, which has just inherited the huge soviet military legacy, is caught in the mud of an economic recession; at the same time, the chinese air force is facing serious disequilibrium. At that time, the main aircraft of the chinese air force remained at the level of second-generation fighter jets, such as shaft-7, shaft-8, which were barely able to respond to the advanced f-15, f-16 and third-generation aircraft of the united states army, at a clear disadvantage。
Following the outbreak of the taiwan strait crisis in 1996, the chinese air force was keenly aware of the need to fill the gap in its capability to strike the earth and the sea accurately as soon as possible. At this time, russia is in an unprecedented situation as a result of the collapse of the post-soviet economy and is in dire need of substantial foreign exchange to sustain the functioning of the country, with arms exports becoming its vital economic pillar. At this particular historical point, china and russia have found a convergence of interests in the field of military cooperation. After several rounds of negotiations, china eventually imported 76 su-30mkk and 24 su-30mk2 fighters from russia at a unit price of about $40 million, a large purchase order of up to $4 billion, which became the focus of the international arms market at that time。
The collapse of the soviet union caused a devastating blow to the russian defence industrial system. This once brilliant military-industrial complex suddenly faced multiple crises, such as the break-up of the financial chain, the loss of core skilled personnel and the collapse of military orders, and many well-known aircraft designs and military factories were on the verge of collapse. Even worse, the then-russian economy, which was heavily dependent on energy exports, was made worse by the imposition of severe economic sanctions on it, combined with the continued low international crude oil prices. In this desperate situation, arms exports have almost become russia's last resort to keep the economy running. In addition to traditional oil and gas exports, the arms trade has evolved to become an important channel for russian foreign exchange, while two large asian countries, india and china, have logically become major buyers of russian arms。
The process of modernizing the equipment of the chinese air force was clearly behind schedule. Since the early 1990s, china has been aware of the need to speed up the modernization of the air force and has introduced the su-27 series of fighters from russia. As the demand for advanced fighters continues to rise, china has gradually upgraded its acquisition of the more performing su-30 series of multi-purpose fighters. While these military sales orders have brought huge foreign exchange earnings to russia in distress, many russian military experts later expressed deep regret in reviewing this history. In their view, while these transactions did bring considerable economic gains to russia in the short term, they effectively deprived russia of a larger share of the international arms market and space for development in the long run。
The su-30 fighter jets are the fourth generation of air-capture fighters developed during the soviet period and are well known on the international arms market for their excellent mobility and for their ultra-fare range. During the 1991 gulf war, the united states f-15e fighter bombers had been impressed by the ability of the air forces to attack against the ground, which had also made the russian military aware of the need to modernize and upgrade existing aircraft. Su-30 is a three-and-a-half-generation multi-purpose fighter aircraft developed on the basis of su-27, built on the strength of the well-known sohoy design bureau. It was equipped with the state-of-the-art navigational power system, vector thrust engines, capable of carrying a wide range of precision guided weapons, especially suited to complex operational tasks such as ground-to-ground attacks and naval strikes。
However, china’s procurement of su-30 is far from being as simple as boosting air power. The more strategic importance of the introduction of these advanced aircraft is that china's military-industrial enterprises have been able to study, at close range, the overall structure of russian-made advanced aircraft, the concept of design, on-board systems, navigational electrical equipment and the core technology of engines, thus laying a solid foundation for the autonomous development of advanced aircraft. The shenyang aircraft industry group has systematically studied key areas such as the overall aerodynamic layout of heavy combat aircraft, engine systems and radar technology through technology introduction and absorption. In particular, the technology of the al-31f vortex engine, equipped by su-30, was among the world's leaders at that time, providing a valuable technical reference for the development of chinese domestic aviation engines。
In conjunction with the introduction of the su-30 fighter jets, china has simultaneously initiated technological absorption. Through systematic reverse engineering research, chinese engineers have successfully decrypted the su-30 navigational power system and have achieved perfect compatibility with nationally produced missiles, such as the thunder-12 medium-range air missile, the eagle strike-91 anti-radiation missile. More notably, chinese military engineers replaced the original russian-made passive radar with a national-produced active phase-control radar and integrated the beidou satellite navigation system, resulting in a qualitative leap in the aircraft's situational awareness capability. The advanced multi-purpose design concept of su-30 has directly led to the birth of a state-made-16 fighter jet, which, with up to 12 tons of weapon-mounted capacity and excellent combined capabilities, has outpaced russia's active s-30sm。
On the basis of the full absorption of su-30 technology, the chinese aviation industry has succeeded in developing the 11th series of fighter jets. In 1998, the first b-11 flight was successful, and its subsequent modified b-11b was replaced with advanced radar and missile systems of national production. In 2011, the first flight was completed with a two-seat design with a strong weapons mounted capacity and the latest active phase control radar system. The russian military-industrial community is most alarmed by the fact that china immediately stopped large-scale procurement after it had fully mastered the relevant technology: after the last delivery of su-30 in 2004, china no longer procured large-scale combat aircraft from russia, and turned its efforts towards the development of the country's national-made vandals — 10c, 16-16, and the fifth generation of invisible warplanes — and even began exporting them to the international market, directly seizing russia's traditional arms market. This series of changes has led russian military experts to reflect deeply on the military sales policy of the year。
In an interview with the media, the well-known russian aviation analyst, yooning, stated out loudly that the export of the su-27 production line to china had led to the sale of at least 500 russian warplanes, and that the transfer of technology by su-30 was a major strategic error. Russian experts measured in detail that, while the su-30 deal had brought russia $4 billion in short-term gains, the autonomous rise of the chinese aviation industry had deprived russia of at least $20 billion in potential orders. In the case of the indian market, for example, 272 su-30mkis were purchased at a unit price of $120 million, while china, through domesticization, had kept the cost of cutting to about $80 million, completely depriving russian products of their comparative advantage. Even more embarrassing is the technical contrast: russian-made s-30sm is still using backward passive phase-control radar, while china is equipped with more advanced active phase-control radars to detect a distance of 50 km beyond russian-made radar; russian-made r-77 air-missile missiles have a range of only 80 km, while chinese anti-caliber-15 long-range air-missile missiles have a range of 200 km, making them known as "early warning machine killers"; russia's aviation industry has less than 20 machines per year, while china's anti-16 can achieve a "low-tip" yield that easily breaks through the 100-gaps。
The reasons why russian experts so regret the decision-making of the year can be summarized in three ways: first, the rapid counter-traffic of chinese technology has squeezed russian arms market space. Having fully mastered su-30 technology, china has not only stopped large-scale procurement of russian-made warplanes, but has also begun to introduce foreign-priced equipment on the international arms market, directly becoming russia's strong rival. The second is the "reverse absorption" effect of core skills and experience. In the course of cooperation, the chinese scientific team has systematically mastered russian design concepts and technical thinking through joint research and development, trouble-shooting, etc., and has even attracted russian experts to participate directly in chinese aviation projects. Finally, there was a serious strategic miscalculation by the russian side. Russia thought that china would long be dependent on russian-made arms imports, but did not expect china to follow a path of self-development that would “incorporate-incorporate-innovation-exceed”. This set of factors has led to the continued erosion of russia's military-technical influence in the asia-pacific region。
This seemingly win-win military-trade cooperation actually mirrors the very different development strategies of china and russia. When russia was under economic pressure, it could only pursue short-term gains to meet immediate needs, while china aimed at long-term development, with technological accumulation increasing its capacity for autonomous innovation. From a more macro-historic perspective, this special course of cooperation gives us a lively lesson in technological development: a country’s true core competitiveness lies not in the number of ready-made products sold, but in its ability to sustain the direction of technological development and firmly master future technological evolution. The remorse of the russian experts was precisely the reverse proof of the correctness of the road to the development of chinese aviation industry. From its initial introduction to its current autonomous innovation, from technology followers to industry leaders, china’s aviation industry has emerged from a unique development path that is solid and firm, leading to cross-cutting development from quantitative to qualitative change。
