Those who drive, look at the oil price information every time. The cost of fuel is a fixed expenditure by the car family, and every time oil prices change, many drivers have to figure out how much it costs to travel and travel long distances next month。
Recently, several energy monitoring agencies have estimated a new round of price-adjusted oil for finished products, with an estimated increase of nearly $590 per ton, or 0. 44 dollars per litre for petrol 92 and 0. 5 dollars per litre for petrol 95. Many car owners see this number, and the first reaction is to fill the tank in advance。
It must be made clear here: this is only an estimate of the agency over the valuation cycle, not the final landing price. The price cycle is not over, international crude oil continues to fluctuate, and the projected increase is likely to continue to fall and to be stimulated by breaking news. Ultimately, it is up, down or down, and everything is governed by the official announcement issued by the national commission for development and development。
Many of the car owners are staring at how much the wheel is going up and spending dozens more on a tank full of oil. However, little attention is drawn to the continuing uncertainty in the international crude oil market behind this round of price increases. Short-term increases are only immediate costs, and subsequent market fluctuations are the long-term pressures on the owners and the logistics industry. Today, it is in plain language to explain the domestic oil price adjustment rules, the reasons behind the projected increase in the current round, the risk points of the subsequent crude oil market, as well as the cost savings that ordinary car owners can put on the ground without creating anxiety, and the context of oil prices。
First, understand how domestic oil prices are calculated, and don't be misled by online fragmentation
Many of the car owners drew short videos and saw “a sharp rise in crude oil and an immediate surge in oil prices” and immediately panicked to line up to refuel. In order to understand oil prices, it is first necessary to understand the mechanism of price adjustment for domestically produced products。
Domestic finished oils, under the current rules, open the pricing window every 10 working days, not by reference to the instant price of international crude oil for a given day, but by reference to the average price of the international crude oil basket for the current cycle, which compares the average price for the previous cycle, calculates the rate of change and determines the upward or downward adjustment. A simple understanding is that a single-day surge in crude oil does not immediately reflect domestic oil prices, which are the basis for the core calculation on the average of 10 working days。
The mechanism also includes the ceiling and floor prices that are often heard. When the average price of international crude oil is higher than $130 per barrel, domestic manufactured oil is not mentioned or less in principle; when international crude oil is less than $40 per barrel, domestic oil prices are no longer reduced. This inter-zonal regulatory mechanism is designed to cushion the extreme surge in international crude oil from sharp fluctuations in international markets that directly impact domestic livelihoods, logistics industries and stabilize domestic energy supplies。
Our external dependence on crude oil exceeds 70 per cent, most of the crude oil is imported from abroad, and changes in international crude oil prices, freight costs and exchange rates are channelled to the cost of domestically produced oil. But this does not equal the increase in international crude oil, so that domestic oil prices rise in parallel. Refining, transport, taxes and fees, and circulation links are included in the final retail price. At the same time, when international oil prices are rising sharply, countries can reduce the burden on oil-using groups through regulatory measures to lower the level of actual transfers。
Many people have one error and feel that oil prices are rising and falling only with regard to crude oil. In fact, crude oil is only the base, and global supply and demand, geo-situation, oil-producing country reduction plans, united states dollar exchange rates, crude oil stock data will influence international crude oil prices and, in turn, domestic price adjustments。
Ii. Estimated increase in the current round of nearly 50 cents, and the reasons behind it
At the beginning of the round, the projected increase was higher, and it was only as international crude oil prices recently rolled back, that the projected increase narrowed. Even if there has been a fallback, the expectation of an increase has been sustained by three main factors。
First, the major oil-producing countries continued to implement production reduction plans to tighten the supply of crude oil. In order to stabilize crude oil prices, some oil-producing countries have continued to prolong their voluntary reduction policies and reduce their exposure to the market. International crude oil prices can be supported by continued compression of supply and reduced flow of crude oil on the market. As soon as the market expects that crude oil supplies will remain tight, the funds will push up the price of crude oil futures。
Secondly, the geo-situation creates uncertainty. The middle east region is one of the most important crude oil-producing regions in the world, and any tension in the region may cause the market to fear disruption in the transport and export of crude oil. As long as the conflict does not subside, the risk-averse of the market will not disappear, and crude oil prices can easily rebound as a result of breaking news. This is also why the recent price shocks for crude oil have been significant, with frequent surges and setbacks of days。
Third, global demand for oil remains resilient. The demand for oil for industrial and travel purposes in europe and the united states and south-east asia has not declined significantly, and the coming fall winter season in the northern hemisphere is expected to increase gradually. The market foresaw that demand for crude oil would increase after the fall and winter and support crude oil prices。
Of course, there are constraints on oil prices. If the global economic recovery falls short of expectations and demand for industrial oil weakens, the price of crude oil will fall. This is also the central reason for the shrinking projected increase during the second half of the round。
Taken together, multiple factors are associated with each other, with high price shocks for crude oil. So the agency's “up by nearly 50 cents” is a dynamic estimate, not the result of nails. For the remainder of the valuation period, any big news could change the final adjustment。
Three: don't just stare at the price of the round. The real pressure is still behind
There's only one thing that many car owners care about: how much is going on this time, whether to refuel in advance. In the long run, however, even with this downward spiral, there are still many variables in the subsequent crude oil market, and it is difficult for oil prices to return to long-term low operating conditions。
First, the sustainability of oil-producing countries ' reduction policies is the largest variable. If production cuts continue to increase and crude oil supplies continue to tighten, international crude oil can easily be pushed up again once the additional demand warms up. Conversely, oil prices will fall if oil-producing countries resume production increases. The policies of oil-producing countries, on the other hand, will continue to influence crude oil price trends for a long time to come。
Second, autumn and winter are the traditional oil season. In the fourth quarter of the year, temperatures in the northern hemisphere have declined, demand for heating oil has increased, the year-end logistics season has increased, demand for diesel fuel for freight has increased, demand for crude oil has increased at a gradual rate, and crude oil prices are easily pushed up. Many of the rounds of previous years were significantly upped, concentrating on the fall and winter period。
There are also geographical risks that have not been completely eliminated. Such incidents are highly sudden and difficult to predict in advance. In the event of an emergency affecting the transport of crude oil, international crude oil will rise rapidly in a short period of time, with direct impact on the subsequent rounds of domestic oil price increases。
However, it is also necessary to demonstrate objectively that there are well-developed regulatory mechanisms at home that, even when international crude oil rises significantly, will cushion the impact of higher prices through regulation and will not fully follow the unrestricted rise in international crude oil. So there is no need to panic, no need to hoard fuel, and security risks are high and irregular。
For ordinary people, long-term stress is manifested at two levels. Private car owners, commuters, transporters, and self-driving on holidays will continue to increase fuel expenditures; higher costs of diesel fuel for truck drivers, couriers, freight forwarders, will increase overall logistics costs and be indirectly channelled to industries。
Iv. What can the owner do before the projected price rises? Reasonably saves money and avoids mistakes
The first reaction of many of the owners to the increase in oil prices was to line up overnight to fill the tank. It is important to remind you of the need to be rational in refuelling, not to be blind, to share a few practical approaches while avoiding common error zones。
One, the tank doesn't have to be full
The oil tank can be filled to 70-80% before the projected price increase window arrives. Filled with fuel tanks, gasoline is in the heat of expansion and there are safety risks. There is no need to queuing at a gas station if you have enough fuel left in the tank itself. Queuing is a waste of time, waiting for the same fuel to be consumed, and the savings may not be sufficient。
Two, change a few expensive driving habits, save a lot of gas in the long run
Many people are high in fuel, not in cars, but in bad driving habits. Starting with heavy gas, frequent brakes, long-term in-shoring and high-speed window openings, fuel consumption is evident. Steady start-up, pre-calculation of road conditions and reduction of brakes; tire pressure maintains the standard recommended by the manufacturer, tire pressure is low, tire resistance increases and fuel consumption increases. Regular clean-up of long-term loads in the trunks will also reduce fuel consumption by reducing vehicle loads. These little things, you hold on, you can save a lot of money every month。
3. Regular vehicle maintenance to prevent increased fuel consumption
Air core congestion, the ageing of spark plugs and the accumulation of excessive carbon will cause vehicle fuel to increase quietly. Maintained on time in accordance with maintenance manual. Vehicles parked for long periods of time are regularly checked for foetal pressure and rubber pipes. If it is found that fuel consumption has suddenly increased in the recent past and that it is inspected in a timely manner, do not wait for the price of oil to rise。
4. Rational planning of travel and reduction of invalid driving
Short-distance travel of several kilometres, short-distance driving, motors not reaching normal working temperatures and fuel consumption will be high. Short distances can be used to consider electric vehicles and riding. The route is planned ahead of time to avoid long congestion. Reducing detours is also a simple and effective way to reduce fuel costs。
Five, avoid two common error zones
The first area of error: online rumours that oil prices will continue to rise sharply, with one-time oil hoarding. The private storage of gasoline is very dangerous, is a flammable and explosive hazard, and individuals are not allowed to keep it in private, and do not try to do so。
Second error: oil 95 must be more resistant to burning than oil 92. Refuelling according to the vehicle manufacturer's recommended sign is sufficient, without the need for blindly high-platform gasoline, and does not result in significant savings, but only increases in vehicle usage costs。
5. Oil price rises and falls are normal
It is a long-term normal for domestic products to increase or fall in prices. Looking at recent years ' price increases, there have been several upwards and downwards each year, as well as a situation in which the adjustment has stalled. Won't keep going up or down。
This round is projected to rise, and even if eventually landed, it will only increase the cost of single refuelling by dozens of dollars. The short-term impact is limited and the real test is the continued uncertainty in the subsequent crude oil market. We need not be anxious about the projected price increases or completely ignore changes in the cost of long-term oil use。
Car families can incorporate fuel costs into their daily budgets, develop good driving habits, maintain vehicles and reduce fuel consumption through small details. For those who intend to buy a car, the cost of fuel can also be factored into the cost of the vehicle, combining their own annual mileage and choosing the fuel or new energy vehicle。
Topical interaction
Do you normally wait for the price to drop or fill the tank before the price rises? In the last six months, do you feel the pressure on the fuel bill for driving? Welcome to the comment section to share your views。
