Gold and silver
It's the end of the world. It's the beginning
- precious metal futures outlook for the second half of 2026
For the second half of the year, we judge that gold will be at the bottom in june-september, with the possibility of price escalation. The core logic lies in our judgement that, in the light of the linear extrapolation of the current geopolitical situation, annual inflation or detours make gold more dynamic than traditional liquidity. At the same time, the neutral interest rate supported a 27-year decline in the united states, but remained constant during the year. But we point to a situation where small-probably demand accelerates down, leverages equity, and keeps an eye on the continued fall of precious metal blood pack properties, when overall economic performance is good. In combination with our judgement that the second half of the united states dollar index is likely to continue with the return to the united states dollar system of the bécsontor, it will be difficult for gold to re-establish the trend in the second half of the year and the overall trend will be more dramatic。
On the silver side, where we primarily discuss the performance of both supply and demand in kind, we believe that there are significant bottlenecks at the silver supply level, and that the demand side, with the bright spots of the ai, is not immune to weak demand, with both supply and demand in general. This does not allow for a prominent contradiction at the supply and demand levels。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
Liu yu-soo
Z002476
The above extracts are taken from the semi-annual newspaper "the end of the scatter," which has been published by the queen tae-ann futures. Precious metal futures outlook for the second half of 2026. Release: july 2026, specific analysis (including risk tips, etc.) was requested to view the full version of the report at the app of gutai's futures。
Plum, platinum
The tide's out of the fog, the cyclical divide and the game key
- biannual outlook for platinum and futures 2026
The tide of liquidity has faded and markets have been silenced at the beginning of the year after epicism. High interest rates and persistent inflationary layers of macro-mog are clouded and the money is out of line. On the basics of supply and demand, south africa's mining sector has hidden the potential for a decline in production associated with el niÑo, with continued recycled discharges shrunk against the pristine minerals; traditional car-catalytic demand continues to shrink, ai computing lanes become the sole long-term incremental support of platinum gold, gold lacks additional demand buffers, supply and demand patterns continue to divide throughout the year, and platinum has a weak main line running through the market。
The risk point needs to be concerned about the continued suppression of precious metals valuation by the united states inflation if it continues to exceed market expectations or will drive the fed to continue its austerity path and increase high interest rate cycles. If el niÑo's actual strength is weak, the supply logic of limited electricity and output in the south african mines may be hypocritical, while the global pace of expansion in ai industry slows, and the potential for higher-end platinum and semiconductor targets to match the increased demand for platinum is less than measured. There is still room for global investment funds to concentrate on selling, which can easily drive prices down quickly in the short term, folding large amounts of current warehouse receipts over extended periods, and slowing the pace of inventory digestion will continue to weaken the speculative elasticity of the surface。
Taken together, short-term macro-mogs are difficult to disperse quickly, the overall effect of shocks is maintained, the three-quarter inflation boom or the key observation window for liquidity rehabilitation, the current stage of structural arbitrage strategy is better than unilateral trend bets, the core variables need to be continuously tracked in the course of the transaction, and the size of the position is reasonably managed to meet all types of tail shocks。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
Liu yu-soo
Z002476
Contact person: yang zheng f03151404
The above extracts are drawn from the six-monthly edition of the newspaper " tidal dispersion misty, cyclops and game keys " , published by: july 2026, specific analysis (including risk tips) to the complete version of the report。
Economic transformation activates new consumption, key minerals disrupting copper pricing
- semi-annual outlook for copper futures 2026
Our point:
Long-cycle copper prices are expected to rise and adjust, and the macro-cycle is subject to bottom-up economic policies, but supply and demand fundamentals will face overhang once they are tightly balanced. At the macro level, long-cycle liquidity remains likely to be repaired and the structural transformation of the economy leads to marginal consumption increases. At the micro level, new quality productivity leads to consumption and the supply of key minerals disrupts, but the increase in the supply of long-term copper is a major trend driven by high profits from mines. In terms of supply and demand balance, global copper oversupply in 2026 turned into a gap in 2027, but the excess increased in 2028-2030。
Our logic:
By late 2026 or 2027, the fed had initiated a precautionary interest rate reduction, which could hedge the risk of economic slowdown and stabilize market expectations. The monetary policy advocated by walsh would be more conducive to upward valuation of venture asset prices by reducing inflation through ai industrial development, promoting productivity prosperity and achieving low inflation growth in the united states economy. Essentially, the emergence of new quality productivity industrial chains has become an engine for new copper consumption. New electricity systems continue to advance to adapt to new quality productivity. At the same time, new energy sources are the core vehicles of new quality productivity, which have led to structural transformations in copper consumption. On the supply side, key mineral policies have led to short-term stress and long-term easing of global copper resource smelting raw materials, determining the pace of smelting, which is expected to be gradually released after 2028, when global copper production is expected to be under pressure in 2026-2027。
In terms of short-term timing and risk management, the final outcome of the trump 232 tariff determines the structural changes in stocks and the phasing of prices. If trump were to levy tariffs, the expected flow of stocks to the united states would remain and lme copper prices would be supported. However, when united states copper stock increases in excess of usa, etc., the consumption increases are expected to put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices will be driven by pressures at comex prices and lme prices. If trump does not levy tariffs, global copper prices will decline in stages. At the same time, capital markets exhibit significant structural segmentation of ai valuations, with the end of the boom, leading to greater stock and commodity volatility。
Investment outlook:
Macro and fundamental logic suggests that long-cycle copper prices will face adjustment when they are robust. We tend to deal at a high level when there is a 232 tariff or an ai valuation disturbance, but when prices fall to a low level, they can still be bought at a low level until 2027, and the basic excess between 2028 and 2030 will put copper prices under upward pressure. On arbitrage, copper and lron-durations are expected to exist before 2027, and internal and external supply and demand and stocks are expected to support the transaction. The inside and outside of copper can be traded, but there are risks such as loss of storage。
Risk tips:
The global ai centre for computing is facing significant risks in terms of its logic or market liquidity。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
The season first
Z0012691
Contact: wang zonggen f03142619
The above extracts are taken from the semi-annual edition of the economic transformation activation of new consumption, pricing of copper for critical mineral disturbation - a half-annual outlook of copper futures 2026, published in july 2026, with a detailed analysis (including risk tips, etc.) to the complete version of the report to the government's futures app。
Aluminium electrolyte: where is the industry's high-profit turning point in the middle east, from cut-off to resupply
Aluminium oxide: geo-pricing, selling or buying of a resource
Casting aluminium alloy: anchoring the d-al seasonal price differential opportunity
- semi-annual outlook for aluminum futures, 2026
Electrolytic aluminium:
There is a shortage abroad or an already marginal trend towards a significant decrease, and the withdrawal of profits from the aluminium industry is being recognized ahead of schedule. According to the most recent baseline scenario (the average supply break at the middle east aluminium plant was three months), production from the offshore primary aluminum market was 30. 1 million tons, at an estimated growth rate of around -0. 3 per cent per annum, demand from abroad was estimated at 2,885 million tons at a rate of 1. 2 per cent per annum, net exports were projected to reach 2. 17 million tons, and there was a shortfall or close to 920,000 tons in the offshore primary aluminum market throughout the year, although the gap remained in the second half of the year, but the monthly and quarterly gaps were likely to decrease significantly over the first half of the year. The year-round excess of 920,000 tons under china’s benchmark scenario, the global balance of supply and demand is around 0 per year, the marginal view of the second half of the year being overseas or still small, the chinese market is overstretched, and the underlying drivers are expected to remain relatively external and internal, but attention needs to be paid to the elasticity of the overseas macro-side to the price of aluminum。
Aluminium oxide:
The issue remains guinea, where high and low mine prices can be measured in terms of the cost of cash to price aluminium oxide. Aluminium oxide, as an important intermediate for linking upstream aluminium mineral resources and for the use of metal materials in major downstream national industries, is increasingly affected by the geo-pricing of resource products. At the heart of the mining policy affecting guinea's mineral prices in the second half of the year was the dunbuya, and 150 million wet tons remained the core watershed. For the time being, we would prefer that the guinea bauxite should remain at the bottom of the chinese cif offer at us$ 65-70 per ton and above, corresponding to the cash cost pricing guidelines under the surplus pattern. While the global aluminium oxygen static assessment in 2026 is likely to remain surplus, the excess may have tended to recede in 2027 and the current profit competition remains weak, but the “three-year peak cycle” is of concern。
Casting aluminium alloy:
The green premium is well established in the long term and short-term price repairs need to go beyond “waste aluminium” and “go-to-bank”. Adc12 remains anchored in the direction of electrolytic aluminium, but its price elasticity depends more on the cost of waste aluminium and end demand. In 2025, the supply of new scrap aluminium was reduced from 3. 66. 6 million tons to 1376,000 tons, while imports also declined in comparison, and compliance was tight and insufficient to support the cost base. Short-term price repairs are still pending improvements in vehicle discharges, restoration of cast orders and decomposition of aluminium alloy stocks; medium- and long-term green properties will continue to be valued as regenerated aluminium alloys。
Risk tips:
The fed is over-anticipated, the weak dollar cycle is back, and the ai narrative is redirected to a capital end where traditional colour demand is strong。
Gutai's future
Assistant director, institute
Chief analyst
Wang yong
Z0002529
Contact: tanya f03155711
The above extracts are taken from the semi-annual newspaper, aluminum: where is the industry's high-profit turning point from cut-off to re-supply in the middle east? Aluminium oxide: geo-pricing, selling or buying of a resource? Founding aluminium alloy: the opportunity to anchor the d-al seasonal price differential - aluminium futures semi-annual outlook 2026. Published: july 2026, specific analysis (including risk alerts, etc.) was sent to the futures app of gutai an for the full version of the report。
It's the end of the world
- semi-annual outlook for zinc futures 2026
Our point:
Based on global demand for and supply of zinc elements, the prices for zinc in the second half of the year are either low or low. We believe that supply-side contradictions will continue to dominate prices, and that in the event of a ripple conflict between mines and ingots, lower processing costs may operate longer in the year, with the elasticity of zinc prices. The tightness of the mine has become a fact this year, but it still takes time for the mine to travel to the sun, short-term contradictions have not been exacerbated and the price of zinc is dominated by shocks. Looking towards the second half of the year, there is a risk of marginal reductions in production in the third quarter, against the background of near-drying up domestic refinery stocks. We believe that, in the second half of the year, the balance of zinc has shifted, and we suggest that attention be given to the opportunities that arise at the point of detoxification. However, there is still a need to see a stronger driver on the side of reality, namely, the scaling up of the refinery reduction, the need to repair during the season and the continuation of real exports when the zinc export window opens. The risk factor is that this year's internal and external fragmentation is less than last quarter, and the path to effectively de-mining stockpiles through exports remains to be confirmed。
Investment outlook:
Unilaterally based on low-intensity thinking or the purchase of increased options; the arbitrage dimension, based on the proximity of the second half of the bank, the improvement of the traditional consumption boom season and the attention given to trading opportunities for the second half of the year; and the internal and external aspects, where uncertainty still exists, could open the domestic window for the import of zinc mines for a phased internal and external reverse。
Risk point:
The supply side experienced a dramatic reduction in production; domestic stimulus policies exceeded expectations。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
The season first
Z0012691
Contact: wang zonggen f03142619
The above extracts are taken from the six-monthly edition of the end of the wave, dark flow - a half-year vision of the zinc futures 2026, published in july 2026, and the specific analysis (including risk tips) are sent to the quetsu an futures app to view the full version of the report。
It's cold. Spring's not here
- semi-annual outlook for lead futures 2026
Our point:
Based on the year-round weakness of the demand for and supply of lead, which is difficult to move at prices or in the form of an inter-temporal shock, the main operating area of lead is $1800-17000/t, and the main operating area of lead is $1,800-2,100/t. On the supply side, while the increase in overseas mines is relatively limited this year, the increase in domestic mines is expected to release, while the supply of scrap batteries has increased, or is slightly higher, and the production of refined lead continues to increase with a slight improvement in the supply of raw materials. On the demand side, the first half of the year was characterized by a clear cold of electricity consumption, with electricity moorings becoming a new attraction for the market, but it was difficult to close the gap and a shrinking of the incremental market. However, there has been a slowdown in the lithium-based lead process, and the superseding of consumption continues to refine lead consumption, which, in our view, increases slightly over the year. In addition, problems such as the high level of the quilun margin, the middle east tariff sanctions, and the probable decline in the export rate of the battery. Overall, both supply and demand continue to be weak and domestic lead markets have a small surplus。
Investment outlook:
In terms of the basics of coloured varieties, lead is weak in the plate, and the pattern lacks a storyline that can be used as an empty source of funding. Considering that this year's high consumption season may not be promising, and that the price of lead will still take time to build, it is not appropriate to look at it in a low, multi-thinking manner, and it is recommended that inter-area operations take place。
Risk point:
Minerals are not increasing as expected, and consumption is weakening。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
The season first
Z0012691
Contact: wang zonggen f03142619
The above extracts are taken from the six-monthly edition of the edition of the edition of the edition of the edition of the edition of the pan-yun chiu, before spring — the half-year lead futures vision 2026, published: july 2026, with specific analysis (including risk tips, etc.) to the full version of the report。
The tide of power is still running, and the supply is on course
- the tin futures outlook for late 2026
The core contradiction in the city of tin in 2026 lies in the rebalancing of supply repair with greater demand than expected。
On the supply side, there has been a marginal improvement in the global supply of tin, but release has been slower than expected. The resumption of production in wa state in myanmar has already materialized to the import end, but the decline in the grade of the ore has led to a much lower increase in metal volumes than in kind; the landing of the rkab quota in indonesia has enhanced certainty in the supply of the mine, but the policy disturbance remains; and the outbreak of the democratic republic of the congo and the armed conflict have not yet had a substantial impact. At the same time, global tin-mine capital expenditure has re-entered the expansion cycle, but new projects have generally moved behind, with the actual new capacity contribution limited in 2026, and improved supply is more reflected in the resumption of production in stock mines。
At the demand level, aggregate growth slowed and structural fragmentation intensified. The development of ai infrastructure remains the most important source of growth, with the continued expansion of demand for high-level pcb, advanced sealing and server industrial chains, supporting welding; however, consumer electronics are affected by built-in price increases and cost transfer, and smartphones and pcs are being overhauled significantly; the photovoltaic industry enters the platform period after the recovery cycle and the new energy vehicle growth hub is falling more rapidly than before。
We expect a global tin supply of about 382,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 3. 9 per cent over the same period; a global demand of about 386,000 tons, an increase of 1. 2 per cent over the same period; and a supply and demand gap of about 30 million tons to be maintained throughout the year. In a low-stocked context, the support below tin prices remains strong, but the upward drive is weaker than in the first half of the year as supply marginal repairs gradually materialize. In the second half of the year, tin prices are expected to be dominated by high broad-band shocks and to remain at a historically high concentration, focusing on the pace of recovery of imports in myanmar, the timing of indonesia's export policy, and the stage trading opportunities created by ai's development。
Risk tips:
The tin mine did not arrive as expected, and the overseas macroturbation。
Gutai's future
Joint administrative responsibility for non-ferrous and precious metals people
Chief analyst
Liu yu-soo
Z002476
The above extracts are taken from the six-monthly edition of guo-kon's futures, “strengthens in calculus, the supply rehab -- a vision of tin futures in the second half of 2026”, published in july 2026. Specific analyses (including risk tips, etc.) were sent to guo-kon's futures app to view the full version of the report。
