Many thought speculation was gambling, but true professional speculation had a back-up logic. In a sharing on 5 august 2023, the luke team broke the logic into six blocks, which is much more intuitive than eating 10 PDFs。
Definition and core characteristics of speculative markets
The core definition of speculative markets is straightforward: speculators take margin profits in a very short period of time by buying or selling an asset. A clear line was drawn in the sharing of luke team on 5 august 2023 — speculation on price fluctuations and investment on the growth of corporate value, which is completely different from holding cycles and sources of profit and must not be confused, otherwise the strategy would be contradictory。
There are three hard labels for speculative markets: high liquidity, high price volatility and extremely diverse players. The presence of individual family members, hedge funds, market vendors and quantitative teams is very poor. For speculators, opportunities and risks are always two sides of the same coin。
Distinction between the roles of market participants and speculators
The three roles of "dealer" and "investor" speculator are often mixed, but the toolbox is completely different. Investors are focused on basics and are held in monthly and even annual prices; speculators look only at price trends and volume relationships, and hold in daily or hourly prices; and traders are biased towards high-frequency (hf) margins and liquidity premiums. The luke team has repeatedly stressed that it is important to find out which role it belongs to, and then choose the corresponding strategic framework。
In the a stock market in 2023, public fund managers were typical investors, short-term tour capital was speculators and quantitative traders were traders. Three types of players play in the same pool, and the core task of speculators is to identify the rivals. – using the poor rhythm of the agency’s silos, and using the liquidity generated by the diaspora panic to gain, rather than seeing the boom and the fall and the fall, blind and wind pay more。
Use of speculative tactics and techniques
Mainstream speculative strategies are three paths: trend tracking, average return, event-driven. The trend-tracking average breakthroughs are magnified, the average values return to the gambling price deviation and bounce back to the hub, with events driving early ambushes around definite nodes such as financial, policy landings, elections, etc. The luke team's advice to the newcomers is real: first-time follow-up, the rules are the most transparent, and it's not easy to persecute itself, and when a stable profit/loss ratio is added to other strategies。
At the skill level, stoppage is lifeline. It is common practice for the industry to have a single loss of no more than 2 per cent of total funds and to have to stop cooling down three times. Single varieties are not over 30 per cent of total warehousing positions. In late july 2023, after the panic killing of unit a, a large number of members of the diaspora left the scene, the result was a massive reversal in early august — not in the wrong direction, but in the absence of silo discipline, and in the event of a collapse of mentality, which turned the deficit into a loss。
The impact of trading psychology on speculation
Behavioral finance has a strong figure: on average, the a-breeders hold less than two months, and the institution holds more than one year, resulting in the long-term annual run of the bulk. The luke team attributed the cause to two deviations - the "disposal effect" (sold 5%, lost 20%) and "excessive self-confidence" (several win and double bets immediately), which can quietly swallow the benefits of all your technical analysis。
In-house research by a front-line dealer in 2023 revealed that more than 70 per cent of the dispersed households, after a loss, did not want to reduce their prices, but rather to increase their leverage in order to “take back”, which resulted in deeper and more direct accounts. The solution is simple: write the plan and stop position on paper before the next list, do it with a system signal, replace the "i think it's time to go up" in the head with "is the trend line effectively broken" and let the rules replace emotions。
The principle of speculation isStock tradingApplications in
The theory of speculation has fallen to a, and the classic application is the short line of policy expectations. The central political bureau meeting at the end of july 2023 released a steady growth signal, with coupons and property blocks rising collectively in early august, averaging between five and seven trading days from the news to the top. The job of speculators is not to judge policy direction, but to identify "bad expectations" — the part of the market that is not fully reflected, go in and out, don't be greedy。
The second application is a hedge tool. In 2023, the a stock was repeatedly convulsed between 2,800 and 3200 points, with pure multi-head speculators being beaten back and forth, and accounts being cut back dramatically. However, those who know the condom sell their 50 etf options with a false subscription, turning the shock period into a stable source of cash flows. The phrase of the luke team is that speculation is not the same as a full-scale shuttle, and professional athletes use tools to lock down down the downside risk and then to be flexible。
Risk boundaries and revenue management in speculative markets
The two most deadly pits of speculation: the depletion of leverage and mobility. In august 2023, an off-shore encrypted currency exchange was unable to conclude a transaction because of chain congestion and the market value of the warehouse was reduced by more than 40 per cent overnight. The luke team drew three red lines: not more than three times the leverage, non-trade time without a list of prices, a single-day account withdrawal triggers the forced smelt-out operation, and three break-throughs leave。
In revenue management, professional speculators are not chasing "one double" but "stabilized compound." the model of monthlyization of 5 per cent and doubling of annualization looks simple, but requires a success rate of over 60 per cent and a profit/loss ratio of at least 1 to 1. 5. In 2023, less than 5 per cent of the individual accounts were able to stabilize at this level, and the vast majority died in a "small gain" cycle, with the accounts shrunk after a year of busy work。
What kind of psychological bias are you most likely to have on the disk -- is it "damn off"? The comment area would be welcome to talk, and it would be useful to order a compliment and forward it to a friend who was blind。
